SHARE ON

Share on facebook
Share on twitter

2021 Federal Redistribution – Boundaries Finalised for Victoria

Draft were released in March and finalised at the end of June.

Today the supporting documentation, the maps and enrolment data, have been published which allows me to publish estimated margins for the finalised boundaries.

There were two changes of significance from the draft boundaries. Most of the proposed suburb swaps between Macnamara and Higgins have been reversed, and the proposal to re-name Corangamite as Tucker has also been abandoned.

The overall summary of the redistribution is that all 38 continuing seats remain held by the party that won the division in 2019, and the newly created 39th division is called Hawke and is a safe Labor seat.

The redistribution was triggered by last year’s determination of state representation in the House of Representatives as required by Section 24 of the Constitution and the . The determination was that Victoria gain a seat, increasing its number of members from 38 to 39 seats, and Western Australia be reduced from 16 to 15 seats.

The new seat is based on Melbourne’s outer west and north-west fringe and includes Sunbury, Melton, Bacchus Marsh and Ballan. It has been named Hawke in honour of former Labor Prime Minister Robert James Lee (Bob) Hawke.

Most urban seats have had some boundary changes. The transfer of Springvale and Noble Park from Bruce to Hotham means the two seats more or less swap margins. Chisholm is slightly weakened for Liberal .

The table below is set out entirely based on two-party preferred margins, which means it does not include estimated new margins for the Green seat of Melbourne, though the seat undergoes only minor changes. Indi is unchanged which leaves it as Independent held.

Many of the more important boundary changes have also been illustrated with maps of the old and new boundaries.

All the details on the redistribution plus maps can be found on the AEC website.

Update 27 July – After reviewing all calculations, I’ve made very small adjustments to the margins for the safe seats of Bruce, Hawke and Mallee.

Aston

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
LIB 10.1
MP (Liberal)
Boundaries unchanged.

New
LIB 10.1

Ballarat

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 11.0
MP Catherine King (Labor)
Loses Ballan and Bacchus Marsh in the east to the new division of Hawke. Gains most of Golden Plains Shire to the south of from Corangamite and Wannon.

New
ALP 10.3

Bendigo

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 9.0
MP (Labor)
To the south east loses Woodend to McEwen.

New
ALP 8.9

Bruce

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 14.2
MP Julian Hill (Labor)
Shifts eastward, losing heavily Labor Springvale and Noble Park to Hotham in the west, while gaining parts of Berwick and Narre Warren from La Trobe in the east.

New
ALP 7.3

Calwell

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 18.8
MP Maria Vamvakinou (Labor)
Loses Keilor Park, Gladstone Park and Tullamarine to Maribyrnong.

New
ALP 19.6

Casey

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
LIB 4.6
MP (Liberal) (retiring)
Very minor changes gaining around a thousand voters along the seat’s southern boundary from La Trobe.

New
LIB 4.6

Chisholm

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
LIB 0.6
MP Gladys Liu (Liberal)
Shifts south, losing parts of Box Hill, Blackburn, Nunawading and Forest Hill to Menzies and Deakin the north, while pushing south of Waverley Road to take in parts of Chadstone, Mount Waverley, Glen Waverley and Wheelers Hill. Loses part of Surrey Hills to Kooyong.

New
LIB 0.5

Cooper

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 26.3
MP (Labor)
Very minor change, losing Clifton Hill in the south to Melbourne. The Labor margin versus the is 14.6%.

New
ALP 26.2

Corangamite

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 1.1
MP (Labor)
Loses all of the Surf Coast south from Anglesea to Wannon along with areas inland from Winchelsea, and parts of Golden Plains Shire north and west of Geelong to Ballarat.

New
ALP 1.0

Corio

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 10.3
MP Richard Marles (Labor)
Boundaries unchanged.

New
ALP 10.3

Deakin

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
LIB 4.8
MP (Liberal)
Gains parts of Blackburn and Forest Hill from Chisholm and Warranwood from Menzies. Loses parts of Mitcham and Nunawading to Menzies.

New
LIB 4.7

Dunkley

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 2.7
MP Peta Murphy (Labor)
Boundaries unchanged.

New
ALP 2.7

Flinders

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
LIB 5.6
MP (Liberal)
Boundaries unchanged.

New
LIB 5.6

Fraser

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 14.2
MP Daniel Mulino (Labor)
In then north loses Kings Park, Keilor Downs, Delahey, Sydenham, Keilor and Taylors Lake to Gorton. Gains Maidstone, Maribyrnong and parts of Footscray from Maribyrnong, and the rest of Footscray as well as Seddon, Kindsville and Yarraville from Gellibrand.

New
ALP 18.1

Gellibrand

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 14.8
MP (Labor)
Loses Footscray, West Footscray, Seddon, Kingsville and Yarraville to Fraser. Loses parts of Truganina and Point Cook to Lalor while gaining Williams Landing in return.

New
ALP 13.0

Gippsland

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
NAT 16.7
MP (National)
Boundaries unchanged.

New
NAT 16.7

Goldstein

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
LIB 7.8
MP (Liberal)
Boundaries unchanged.

New
LIB 7.8

Gorton

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 15.4
MP Brendan O’Connor (Labor)
Loses Melton to the new seat of Hawke. Gains Kings Park, Keilor Downs, Delahey, Sydenham, Keilor and Taylors Lake in the east from Fraser.

New
ALP 14.3

Hawke (New seat)

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
..
New seat fashioned from the satellite communities to the west and north-west of Melbourne. It takes in Sunbury from McEwen, Melton from Gorton, and Bacchus March and Ballan from Ballarat. The electorate is named after former Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke.

New
ALP 10.2

Higgins

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
LIB 3.9
MP (Liberal)
Loses part of Glen Iris to Kooyong and Hughesdale to Hotham. Gains Windsor from Macnamara.

New
LIB 3.7

Holt

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 8.7
MP (Labor)
loses part of Narre Warren to Bruce.

New
ALP 8.9

Hotham

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 5.9
MP Clare O’Neil (Labor)
Major changes that strengthen the Labor margin. Areas north of Wellington Road around Mount Waverley and Wheelers Hill have been transferred to Chisholm. Gains Hughesdale from Higgins, and gains strong Labor voting territory around Springvale and Noble Park from Bruce.

New
ALP 11.2

Indi

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
IND 1.4
MP (Independent)
Boundaries unchanged.

New
IND 1.4

Isaacs

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 6.4
MP (Labor)
Boundaries unchanged.

New
ALP 6.4

Jagajaga

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 6.6
MP Kate Thwaites (Labor)
Loses Plenty, Diamond Creek and Wattle Glen to McEwen. Gains Eltham, Research and Kangaroo Ground from Menzies.

New
ALP 5.9

Kooyong

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
LIB 6.7
MP (Liberal)
Gains part of Glen Iris from Higgins. Gains the rest of Surrey Hills from Chisholm. Note that at the 2019 Labor finished third and the Liberal margin versus the Greens was 5.7%.

New
LIB 6.4

La Trobe

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
LIB 4.5
MP (Liberal)
Loses parts of Berwick and Narre Warren to Bruce. Gains Bunyip, Koo Wee Rup and areas south and east of Pakenham from Monash.

New
LIB 5.5

Lalor

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 12.4
MP Joanne Ryan (Labor)
Gains parts of Truganina and Point Cook from Gellibrand in exchange for Williams Landing.

New
ALP 12.4

Macnamara

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 6.2
MP (Labor)
Loses Windsor to Higgins.

New
ALP 6.1

Mallee

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
NAT 16.2
MP (National)
Gains Halls Gap and Stawell from Wannon.

New
NAT 15.7

Maribyrnong

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 11.2
MP Bill Shorten (Labor)
Loses areas between the Maribyrnong River and Footscray to Fraser. In the south gains Kensington from Melbourne, and in the north gains Gladstone Park, Tullamarine and Keilor Park from Calwell.

New
ALP 10.3

McEwen

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 5.0
MP Rob Mitchell (Labor)
In the west gains Woodend from Bendigo and in the east Plenty, Diamond Creek and Wattle Glan from Jagajaga. Loses Sunbury to the new seat of Hawke.

New
ALP 5.3

Melbourne

2PP Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 17.1
MP (Greens)
Note: Melbourne was won by the Greens at the 2019 election and had a Green margin of 21.8% versus the Liberal Party. A new Green margin has not been estimated but should be around the same value. The electorate gains Clifton Hill and parts of Brunswick East from Wills. Loses Kensington to Maribyrnong.

New
ALP 17.8

Menzies

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
LIB 7.5
MP (Liberal) (retiring)
Loses Eltham, Research and Kangaroo north of the Yarra to Jagajaga. Shifts south of Koonung Creek gaining parts of Box Hill, Blackburn, Nunawading and Mitcham from Chisholm and Deakin.

New
LIB 7.0

Monash

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
LIB 7.4
MP (Liberal)
Loses areas around KooWee Rup, Lang Lang and Bunyip to La Trobe.

New
LIB 6.9

Nicholls

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
NAT 20.0
MP (National)
Boundaries unchanged.

New
NAT 20.0

Scullin

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 21.7
MP (Labor)
Boundaries unchanged.

New
ALP 21.7

Wannon

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
LIB 10.4
MP (Liberal)
Loses Halls Gap and Stawell to Mallee and parts of Golden Plains Council to Ballarat. Gains all of the Surf Coast south from Anglesea along with areas inland from Winchelsea.

New
LIB 10.2

Wills

Margin
Notes on Changes

Old
ALP 25.9
MP Peter Khalil (Labor)
Loses part of Brunswick East to Melbourne. The Labor margin versus the Greens is 8.2%.

New
ALP 25.7

Source: Read More