Draft Federal electoral boundaries were released in March and finalised at the end of June.
Today the supporting documentation, the maps and enrolment data, have been published which allows me to publish estimated margins for the finalised boundaries.
There were two changes of significance from the draft boundaries. Most of the proposed suburb swaps between Macnamara and Higgins have been reversed, and the proposal to re-name Corangamite as Tucker has also been abandoned.
The overall summary of the redistribution is that all 38 continuing seats remain held by the party that won the division in 2019, and the newly created 39th division is called Hawke and is a safe Labor seat.
The redistribution was triggered by last year’s determination of state representation in the House of Representatives as required by Section 24 of the Constitution and the Electoral Act. The determination was that Victoria gain a seat, increasing its number of members from 38 to 39 seats, and Western Australia be reduced from 16 to 15 seats.
The new seat is based on Melbourne’s outer west and north-west fringe and includes Sunbury, Melton, Bacchus Marsh and Ballan. It has been named Hawke in honour of former Labor Prime Minister Robert James Lee (Bob) Hawke.
Most urban seats have had some boundary changes. The transfer of Springvale and Noble Park from Bruce to Hotham means the two seats more or less swap margins. Chisholm is slightly weakened for Liberal Gladys Liu.
The table below is set out entirely based on two-party preferred margins, which means it does not include estimated new margins for the Green seat of Melbourne, though the seat undergoes only minor changes. Indi is unchanged which leaves it as Independent held.
Many of the more important boundary changes have also been illustrated with maps of the old and new boundaries.
All the details on the redistribution plus maps can be found on the AEC website.
Update 27 July – After reviewing all calculations, I’ve made very small adjustments to the margins for the safe seats of Bruce, Hawke and Mallee.
AstonMargin Notes on Changes Old LIB 10.1 MP Alan Tudge (Liberal)
Boundaries unchanged. New LIB 10.1
BallaratMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 11.0 MP Catherine King (Labor)
Loses Ballan and Bacchus Marsh in the east to the new division of Hawke. Gains most of Golden Plains Shire to the south of from Corangamite and Wannon. New ALP 10.3
BendigoMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 9.0 MP Lisa Chesters (Labor)
To the south east loses Woodend to McEwen. New ALP 8.9
BruceMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 14.2 MP Julian Hill (Labor)
Shifts eastward, losing heavily Labor voting Springvale and Noble Park to Hotham in the west, while gaining parts of Berwick and Narre Warren from La Trobe in the east. New ALP 7.3
CalwellMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 18.8 MP Maria Vamvakinou (Labor)
Loses Keilor Park, Gladstone Park and Tullamarine to Maribyrnong. New ALP 19.6
CaseyMargin Notes on Changes Old LIB 4.6 MP Tony Smith (Liberal) (retiring)
Very minor changes gaining around a thousand voters along the seat’s southern boundary from La Trobe. New LIB 4.6
ChisholmMargin Notes on Changes Old LIB 0.6 MP Gladys Liu (Liberal)
Shifts south, losing parts of Box Hill, Blackburn, Nunawading and Forest Hill to Menzies and Deakin the north, while pushing south of Waverley Road to take in parts of Chadstone, Mount Waverley, Glen Waverley and Wheelers Hill. Loses part of Surrey Hills to Kooyong. New LIB 0.5
CooperMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 26.3 MP Ged Kearney (Labor)
Very minor change, losing Clifton Hill in the south to Melbourne. The Labor margin versus the Greens is 14.6%. New ALP 26.2
CorangamiteMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 1.1 MP Libby Coker (Labor)
Loses all of the Surf Coast south from Anglesea to Wannon along with areas inland from Winchelsea, and parts of Golden Plains Shire north and west of Geelong to Ballarat. New ALP 1.0
CorioMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 10.3 MP Richard Marles (Labor)
Boundaries unchanged. New ALP 10.3
DeakinMargin Notes on Changes Old LIB 4.8 MP Michael Sukkar (Liberal)
Gains parts of Blackburn and Forest Hill from Chisholm and Warranwood from Menzies. Loses parts of Mitcham and Nunawading to Menzies. New LIB 4.7
DunkleyMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 2.7 MP Peta Murphy (Labor)
Boundaries unchanged. New ALP 2.7
FlindersMargin Notes on Changes Old LIB 5.6 MP Greg Hunt (Liberal)
Boundaries unchanged. New LIB 5.6
FraserMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 14.2 MP Daniel Mulino (Labor)
In then north loses Kings Park, Keilor Downs, Delahey, Sydenham, Keilor and Taylors Lake to Gorton. Gains Maidstone, Maribyrnong and parts of Footscray from Maribyrnong, and the rest of Footscray as well as Seddon, Kindsville and Yarraville from Gellibrand. New ALP 18.1
GellibrandMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 14.8 MP Tim Watts (Labor)
Loses Footscray, West Footscray, Seddon, Kingsville and Yarraville to Fraser. Loses parts of Truganina and Point Cook to Lalor while gaining Williams Landing in return. New ALP 13.0
GippslandMargin Notes on Changes Old NAT 16.7 MP Darren Chester (National)
Boundaries unchanged. New NAT 16.7
GoldsteinMargin Notes on Changes Old LIB 7.8 MP Tim Wilson (Liberal)
Boundaries unchanged. New LIB 7.8
GortonMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 15.4 MP Brendan O’Connor (Labor)
Loses Melton to the new seat of Hawke. Gains Kings Park, Keilor Downs, Delahey, Sydenham, Keilor and Taylors Lake in the east from Fraser. New ALP 14.3
Hawke (New seat)Margin Notes on Changes Old .. New seat fashioned from the satellite communities to the west and north-west of Melbourne. It takes in Sunbury from McEwen, Melton from Gorton, and Bacchus March and Ballan from Ballarat. The electorate is named after former Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke. New ALP 10.2
HigginsMargin Notes on Changes Old LIB 3.9 MP Katie Allen (Liberal)
Loses part of Glen Iris to Kooyong and Hughesdale to Hotham. Gains Windsor from Macnamara. New LIB 3.7
HoltMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 8.7 MP Anthony Byrne (Labor)
loses part of Narre Warren to Bruce. New ALP 8.9
HothamMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 5.9 MP Clare O’Neil (Labor)
Major changes that strengthen the Labor margin. Areas north of Wellington Road around Mount Waverley and Wheelers Hill have been transferred to Chisholm. Gains Hughesdale from Higgins, and gains strong Labor voting territory around Springvale and Noble Park from Bruce. New ALP 11.2
IndiMargin Notes on Changes Old IND 1.4 MP Helen Haines (Independent)
Boundaries unchanged. New IND 1.4
IsaacsMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 6.4 MP Mark Dreyfus (Labor)
Boundaries unchanged. New ALP 6.4
JagajagaMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 6.6 MP Kate Thwaites (Labor)
Loses Plenty, Diamond Creek and Wattle Glen to McEwen. Gains Eltham, Research and Kangaroo Ground from Menzies. New ALP 5.9
KooyongMargin Notes on Changes Old LIB 6.7 MP Josh Frydenberg (Liberal)
Gains part of Glen Iris from Higgins. Gains the rest of Surrey Hills from Chisholm. Note that at the 2019 election Labor finished third and the Liberal margin versus the Greens was 5.7%. New LIB 6.4
La TrobeMargin Notes on Changes Old LIB 4.5 MP Jason Wood (Liberal)
Loses parts of Berwick and Narre Warren to Bruce. Gains Bunyip, Koo Wee Rup and areas south and east of Pakenham from Monash. New LIB 5.5
LalorMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 12.4 MP Joanne Ryan (Labor)
Gains parts of Truganina and Point Cook from Gellibrand in exchange for Williams Landing. New ALP 12.4
MacnamaraMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 6.2 MP Josh Burns (Labor)
Loses Windsor to Higgins. New ALP 6.1
MalleeMargin Notes on Changes Old NAT 16.2 MP Anne Webster (National)
Gains Halls Gap and Stawell from Wannon. New NAT 15.7
MaribyrnongMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 11.2 MP Bill Shorten (Labor)
Loses areas between the Maribyrnong River and Footscray to Fraser. In the south gains Kensington from Melbourne, and in the north gains Gladstone Park, Tullamarine and Keilor Park from Calwell. New ALP 10.3
McEwenMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 5.0 MP Rob Mitchell (Labor)
In the west gains Woodend from Bendigo and in the east Plenty, Diamond Creek and Wattle Glan from Jagajaga. Loses Sunbury to the new seat of Hawke. New ALP 5.3
Melbourne2PP Margin Notes on Changes Old ALP 17.1 MP Adam Bandt (Greens)
Note: Melbourne was won by the Greens at the 2019 election and had a Green margin of 21.8% versus the Liberal Party. A new Green margin has not been estimated but should be around the same value. The electorate gains Clifton Hill and parts of Brunswick East from Wills. Loses Kensington to Maribyrnong. New ALP 17.8
MenziesMargin Notes on Changes Old LIB 7.5 MP Kevin Andrews (Liberal) (retiring)
Loses Eltham, Research and Kangaroo north of the Yarra to Jagajaga. Shifts south of Koonung Creek gaining parts of Box Hill, Blackburn, Nunawading and Mitcham from Chisholm and Deakin. New LIB 7.0
MonashMargin Notes on Changes Old LIB 7.4 MP Russell Broadbent (Liberal)
Loses areas around KooWee Rup, Lang Lang and Bunyip to La Trobe. New LIB 6.9
NichollsMargin Notes on Changes Old NAT 20.0 MP Damian Drum (National)
Boundaries unchanged. New NAT 20.0
ScullinMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 21.7 MP Andrew Giles (Labor)
Boundaries unchanged. New ALP 21.7
WannonMargin Notes on Changes Old LIB 10.4 MP Dan Tehan (Liberal)
Loses Halls Gap and Stawell to Mallee and parts of Golden Plains Council to Ballarat. Gains all of the Surf Coast south from Anglesea along with areas inland from Winchelsea. New LIB 10.2
WillsMargin Notes on Changes Old ALP 25.9 MP Peter Khalil (Labor)
Loses part of Brunswick East to Melbourne. The Labor margin versus the Greens is 8.2%. New ALP 25.7
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